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2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Thirteen

By · November 30th, 2009 · 0 Comments · 1,631 views
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2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Thirteen

If the ESP determined the National Championship Game participants, it would be all but a done deal. Unless Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship, they will face the winner of the SEC Championship game which pits Alabama and Florida for the second consecutive year.

TCU and Boise State have had great runs, but they are too far away in point differentials to make up the ground needed to get into the top two. The bias of pre-season polls and poor competition has shattered their shot at a title game appearance. Cincinnati is undoubtedly in the same category.

The Irish finish the season at 60th in the AV Ranking, going 6-6 against the 26th most difficult schedule and generating the 47th best TPR. A cursory view of this metric seems to be an excellent predictor of team ranking as Alabama, Florida and Texas occupy the top spots and several other highly ranked teams have excellent TPR rankings.

Stay tuned for some BCS bowl game predictions, similar to those performed last season.

Elite Selection Playoff (ESP)
RankTeamAP PollCoach's PollAV RankingPoints
1Florida1131
2Alabama2310.986
3Texas3220.972
4TCU4450.89
5Boise St6640.849
6Cincinnati5570.835
7Ohio State8760.78
8Oregon78100.726
9Iowa91090.684
10Virginia Tech111180.657
11Penn State109120.643
12Georgia Tech1212110.589
13Pittsburgh1415150.465
14Brigham Young1613160.452
15LSU1514170.438
16Miami FL1717130.424
17Southern Cal2019140.342
18Houston1818180.328
19Oregon St1316290.315
20Nebraska2120220.205
21Oklahoma St2221230.164
21West Virginia2423190.164
23California1922310.15
24North CarolinaNRNR200.082
25OklahomaNRNR210.068
AV Ranking
RankTeamPointsStrength of ScheduleQuality Wins/LossesAdjusted Win PercentageMargin of VictoryTeam Performance Ratio
1Alabama0.928583551
2Texas0.8824927422
3Florida0.8647222533
4Boise St0.85610411148
5TCU0.85510118114
6Ohio State0.8533711089
7Cincinnati0.836574011514
8Virginia Tech0.78261017115
9Iowa0.781424103532
10Oregon0.7521840141413
11Georgia Tech0.743881382323
12Penn State0.72278601067
13Miami FL0.7093218172924
14Southern Cal0.708415264239
15Pittsburgh0.6997188141711
16Brigham Young0.692918071828
17LSU0.6853430232825
18Houston0.6831072710931
19West Virginia0.684512314930
20North Carolina0.671692333629
21Oklahoma0.6587135476
22Nebraska0.6577364171316
23Oklahoma St0.6535090233321
24Central Michigan0.6521159081020
25Clemson0.6513816372034
Adjusted Win Percentage (AWP)
RankTeamPoints
1Boise St0.873
1TCU0.873
1Cincinnati0.873
4Texas0.866
5Alabama0.86
5Florida0.86
7Brigham Young0.749
8Georgia Tech0.743
8Central Michigan0.743
10Ohio State0.736
Strength of Schedule (SOS)
RankTeamPoints
1Mississippi St0.961
2Florida St0.933
3Miami OH0.893
4Washington St0.782
5Syracuse0.776
6Virginia Tech0.771
7Oklahoma0.761
8Louisville0.76
9Colorado0.752
10Washington0.739
Team Performance Ratio (TPR)
RankTeamPoints
1Alabama0.909
2Texas0.907
3Florida0.883
4TCU0.836
5Virginia Tech0.812
6Oklahoma0.803
7Penn State0.789
8Boise St0.782
9Ohio State0.776
10Arkansas0.766
Margin of Victory (MOV)
RankTeamPoints
1TCU0.94
2Texas0.929
3Florida0.914
4Boise St0.899
5Alabama0.817
6Penn State0.767
7Oklahoma0.762
8Ohio State0.754
9Houston0.751
10Central Michigan0.743
Quality Wins/Losses (QWL)
RankTeamPoints
1Ohio State1
2North Carolina0.765
3Alabama0.737
4Iowa0.651
5Southern Cal0.601
5Stanford0.601
7Purdue0.592
8Northwestern0.546
9Florida St0.52
10Virginia Tech0.517

Furthermore

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