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2010 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Seven

By · October 18th, 2010 · 0 Comments · 2,515 views
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2010 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Seven

Another week, another series of undefeated and highly ranked teams falling victim to the upset bug.

Ohio State, downed by the Badgers in Madison. Nebraska, done in by a swarming Longhorn defense that allowed a long gain of 14 yards on the ground. South Carolina, outscored 21-0 in the second half by Kentucky after going into the locker room with a 28-10 halftime lead.

On the other side of the coin, Auburn managed to hold of Arkansas in the highest regulation scoring game in SEC history. Iowa handed the Wolverines their second consecutive home loss. And Florida State survived a four-turnover outing against Boston College.

As noted last week, weak early season schedules left a lot of uncertainty as to who was legit and what teams were untested. BCF Toys and Football Outsiders stat guru Brian Fremeau even went so far as to predict a 2007-redux.

As it stands now, Oregon owns the top spot in the ESP, while the Sooners maintain their number one AVR ranking for the second straight week. There are still six teams that in the top 10 of the AVR with low schedule strengths. Some (Oregon, Michigan State, Missouri, and Oklahoma State) will likely have tougher tests the rest of the way through the season. The others (Boise State and TCU) may never face a quality opponent during the rest of the regular season.

The Irish come in at 42nd in the AVR as their strength of schedule drops from 4th last week to 11th. Notre Dame also ranks 21st in quality wins/losses (QWL) but only 54th in adjusted win percentage (AWP) and 65th in margin of victory (MOV). The Irish also currently stand at number 45 in team performance ratio (TPR)—66th on offense, 27th on defense.

Future Irish opponents include Navy (40th in the AVR), Tulsa (66), Utah (15), Army (56), and USC (29).

Elite Selection Playoff (ESP)
RankTeamAP PollCoaches PollAV RankingPoints
1Oregon1131
2Oklahoma3310.972
3Boise St2260.931
4LSU6620.876
5Auburn5550.863
6TCU4480.849
7Michigan St8840.794
8Alabama77160.657
9Ohio State1110100.643
10Utah99150.616
10Wisconsin1011120.616
12Stanford1214130.534
12Iowa1312140.534
14Missouri181670.506
14Oklahoma St171590.506
16Nebraska1413170.465
16Arizona1518110.465
18Florida St1617180.369
19West Virginia2019190.273
20South Carolina1920200.26
21Arkansas2121320.136
22Texas2222270.109
23Virginia Tech2323280.082
24Kansas StNRNR210.068
24Mississippi St2424250.068
AV Ranking (AVR)
RankTeamPointsStrength of ScheduleQuality Wins/LossesAdjusted Win PercentageMargin of VictoryTeam Performance Ratio
1Oklahoma12195189
2LSU0.96656742730
3Oregon0.9581133215
4Michigan St0.95775810136
5Auburn0.955364871611
6Boise St0.9559848132
7Missouri0.9197248978
8TCU0.91710148723
9Oklahoma St0.915804851015
10Ohio State0.82853481554
11Arizona0.821826171713
12Wisconsin0.82951151417
13Stanford0.82474817157
14Iowa0.813693020121
15Utah0.81119482466
16Alabama0.799774811614
17Nebraska0.786861117918
18Florida St0.7598848111138
19West Virginia0.7458921202229
20South Carolina0.733152503710
21Kansas St0.736848203752
22North Carolina0.715921384322
23Hawai`i0.714026243021
24Nevada0.7011154211854
25Mississippi St0.6994618242531
Adjusted Win Percentage (AWP)
RankTeamPoints
1Boise St1
2Oregon0.983
2Utah0.983
4LSU0.976
5Oklahoma0.967
5Oklahoma St0.967
7Auburn0.962
7TCU0.962
9Missouri0.95
10Michigan St0.948
Strength of Schedule (SOS)
RankTeamPoints
1Oregon St1
2Wyoming0.989
3Iowa St0.967
4Brigham Young0.96
5Illinois0.931
6San José St0.888
7Washington St0.886
8Florida0.844
9North Carolina0.839
10Marshall0.798
Team Performance Ratio (TPR)
RankTeamPoints
1Iowa1
2Boise St0.978
3TCU0.96
4Ohio State0.94
5Oregon0.935
6Michigan St0.9
7Stanford0.892
8Missouri0.867
9Oklahoma0.832
10South Carolina0.831
Margin of Victory (MOV)
RankTeamPoints
1Oregon1
2TCU0.971
3Boise St0.959
4Utah0.911
5Ohio State0.849
6Alabama0.796
7Missouri0.794
8Nevada0.787
9Nebraska0.782
10Oklahoma St0.775
Quality Wins/Losses (QWL)
RankTeamPoints
1Wisconsin1
2South Carolina0.975
3Oregon0.937
4Oregon St0.865
5Texas0.859
6Arizona0.812
7LSU0.75
8Michigan St0.625
9Oklahoma0.5
10Southern Cal0.39

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