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Game Coverage, Statistics »

By · September 21st, 2010 · 3,948 views
Statistically Speaking: Notre Dame vs. Michigan State

Another week, another close, tough loss for the Irish. Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio improved to 3-1 against Notre Dame, and the Spartans have won 10 of the last 14 in the series. If it feels like these close, late-game losses are a trend, it’s because they are.

Since opening the 2008 season Notre Dame has played 28 games. The average margin of victory/defeat …

Miscellany, Off-Season, Statistics »

By · August 19th, 2010 · 5,437 views
2010 Season Predictions Survey Results

Thanks to all who participated in the 2010 Season Predictions Survey. When the data to support this analysis was gathered, over 1,500 votes had been cast.

The primary goal of this exercise is to move beyond simply estimating a win-loss record. Selecting the percent confidence in a win on a game-by-game basis is not only much more accurate, it also allows for some interesting follow-on …

Miscellany, Off-Season, Statistics »

By · August 16th, 2010 · 3,056 views
Blueprint for BCS National Championship Success V: Measuring the Irish

Editor’s note: This is the final installment of a five-part series detailing the blueprint for winning the BCS national championship and measuring the Irish performance against this standard.

As Irish fans know all too well, Notre Dame hasn’t been part of the national title picture for over a decade. The last year the lads in blue and gold laid a legitimate claim to a championship …

Miscellany, Off-Season, Statistics »

By · August 7th, 2010 · 2,099 views
Blueprint for BCS Championship Success IV: Outlining the Blueprint

Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of a five-part series detailing the blueprint for winning the BCS national championship and measuring the Irish performance against this standard.

As the offensive and defensive results indicate, there is certainly a blueprint for winning a BCS national championship. The overwhelming majority of the last 10 champions performed at very similar levels in the same statistical categories, and, …

Miscellany, Off-Season, Statistics »

By · August 2nd, 2010 · 2,441 views
Blueprint for BCS Championship Success III: Defensive Results

Editor’s note: This is the third installment of a five-part series detailing the blueprint for winning the BCS national championship and measuring the Irish performance against this standard.

What is the defensive recipe for winning the BCS national championship? The aforementioned approach has been used to parse the data and identify the statistical metrics common to BCS champions. Staying consistent with the offensive results, these …

Miscellany, Off-Season, Statistics »

By · July 30th, 2010 · 2,375 views
Blueprint for BCS Championship Success II: Offensive Results

Editor’s note: This is the second installment of a five-part series detailing the blueprint for winning the BCS national championship and measuring the Irish performance against this standard.

Offensively, what does it take to win the BCS national championship? The data below outlines the statistical metrics that answer this question via the approach described in the opening segment. The metrics have been divided into four …

Miscellany, Off-Season, Statistics »

By · July 27th, 2010 · 2,713 views
Blueprint for BCS Championship Success I: Introduction and Approach

It’s been 21 seasons since Notre Dame last won the national championship, and college football has certainly evolved during that time. The Associated and United Press Championships have been replaced by the Bowl Championship Series (BCS). Recruiting has changed focus to the talent hotbeds of California, Florida and Texas. Two tight end, I-backfields have been replaced by spread, multiple wide receiver formations. And defenses are …

Miscellany, News, Statistics »

By · December 24th, 2009 · 1,510 views
2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Fourteen and BCS Championship Predictions

Disclaimer: The following is not intended for betting purposes.

Similar to last year, the final AV Ranking values (see the values in the table below) will be used to predict the BCS bowl game winners against the spread.

The BCS games are as follows:

  • Rose Bowl presented by Citi: Ohio State vs. Oregon
  • Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. TCU
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati

Miscellany, News, Statistics »

By · November 30th, 2009 · 905 views
2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Thirteen

If the ESP determined the National Championship Game participants, it would be all but a done deal. Unless Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship, they will face the winner of the SEC Championship game which pits Alabama and Florida for the second consecutive year.

TCU and Boise State have had great runs, but they are too far away in point differentials to …

Miscellany, News, Statistics »

By · November 23rd, 2009 · 798 views
2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Twelve

The national title picture is becoming more and more clear.

Unless something dramatically changes, it will be Texas against the winner of the SEC in the national championship game. The ESP has Alabama number one and Florida number two, while the BCS has the two teams in reverse order.

This disparity is largely due to the computer rankings used by the BCS and the computer …