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2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Fourteen and BCS Championship Predictions

By · December 24th, 2009 · 0 Comments
2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Fourteen and BCS Championship Predictions

Disclaimer: The following is not intended for betting purposes.

Similar to last year, the final AV Ranking values (see the values in the table below) will be used to predict the BCS bowl game winners against the spread.

The BCS games are as follows:

  • Rose Bowl presented by Citi: Ohio State vs. Oregon
  • Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. TCU
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Florida
  • FedEx Orange Bowl: Iowa vs. Georgia Tech
  • Citi BCS National Championship: Texas vs. Alabama

The AV Ranking predicts the following winners:

  • Ohio State (0.836) over Oregon (0.765), margin of 0.071
  • TCU (0.855) over Boise State (0.839), margin of 0.016
  • Cincinnati (0.882) over Florida (0.838), margin of 0.044
  • Iowa (0.784) over Georgia Tech (0.747), margin of 0.037
  • Alabama (0.986) over Texas (0.897), margin of 0.089

The BCS National Championship game has the largest AV Ranking margin while the Fiesta Bowl seems to be the most evenly matched contest. The AV Ranking correctly predicted the winner in 80.8 percent of the regular season contests last year. This year is not much different, as the outcomes of 82.3 percent of the regular season games were correctly predicted.

But predicting the winner is far less interesting than predicting which teams will cover the spread.

Using the methodology outlined here, the AV Ranking was used to generate a point spread for the five BCS games listed above. The table below shows these point spreads along with the Vegas point spreads and the corresponding delta. The Vegas spreads were taken on December 7th, so they have likely changed since then.

AV Ranking and Vegas Predictions

[table id=210 /]

As the table shows, the AV Ranking is against the odds in three (Rose, Sugar and Orange) of the five games. This effectively means that the AV Ranking predicts people are overestimating the favorites.

The largest disparity is in the Sugar Bowl, where Vegas has Florida as 10-point favorites while the AV Ranking predicts Cincinnati to win the game. The second largest difference is in the Rose Bowl, where Vegas predicts Oregon to beat Ohio State while the AV Ranking likes the Buckeyes. Both Vegas and the AV Ranking predict about a five-point win for Alabama in the BCS National Championship Game.

As a side note, predicting the Bowl Game winner is not a facile proposition. The best indicator of winning is previous wins, i.e. the strongest corollary to predicting the winner of a game is the Adjusted Win Percentage (AWP) of the two participants. As such, this is the most heavily weighted metric of the AV Ranking.

In Bowl Games the AWP values of the two teams are nearly always similar, as the teams are usually evenly matched. In this scenario, Strength of Schedule (SOS) or Team Performance Ratio (TPR) are better predictors of which team will win as the AWP of both teams is virtually identical.

The AV Ranking SOS predicts the following winners:

  • Oregon (0.728) over Ohio State (0.589), margin of 0.139
  • TCU (0.310) over Boise State (0.251), margin of 0.059
  • Florida (0.578) over Cincinnati (0.552), margin of 0.025
  • Iowa (0.608) over Georgia Tech (0.432), margin of 0.176
  • Alabama (0.608) over Texas (0.595), margin of 0.014

The AV Ranking TPR predicts the following winners:

  • Ohio State (0.778) over Oregon (0.724), margin of 0.054
  • TCU (0.835) over Boise State (0.762), margin of 0.073
  • Florida (0.847) over Cincinnati (0.691), margin of 0.156
  • Georgia Tech (0.669) over Iowa (0.625), margin of 0.044
  • Alabama (0.957) over Texas (0.906), margin of 0.052

This data supports the Vegas odds favoring Florida over Cincinnati rather than the AV Ranking prediction of the Bearcats over the Gators. Cincinnati’s number one AWP ranking (see below) trumps its lower SOS and TPR. In other words, the delta between the AV Ranking and Vegas point spreads above is likely overestimated. Additionally, the turnover in Cincinnati’s coaching staff likely favors the Gators even more.

The final ESP and AV Ranking values are shown below. For reference purposes the weekly releases can be found here: week seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12 and 13.

Elite Selection Playoff (ESP)

[table id=203 /]

AV Ranking

[table id=204 /]

Adjusted Win Percentage (AWP)

[table id=205 /]

Strength of Schedule (SOS)

[table id=206 /]

Team Performance Ratio (TPR)

[table id=207 /]

Margin of Victory (MOV)

[table id=208 /]

Quality Wins/Losses (QWL)

[table id=209 /]



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